INDUSTRY STUDIES ASSOCATION WORKING PAPER SERIES The Diffusion of Complex Market Technologies: Multifaceted Dynamics for Alternative Fuel Vehicles
نویسنده
چکیده
This paper develops initial steps towards a framework for understanding factors that condition success and failure of complex market technologies. Dynamics of such technologies are conditioned by coevolutionary processes including the development of the installed base, consumer behavior, technologies, complementarities and interlinked supply chains. This paper analyzes diffusion patterns, including failures and successes, of alternative transportation fuel (ATF) and vehicle introductions, natural gas in New Zealand and Argentina, and ethanol in Brazil. I analyze the diffusion patterns of retrospective AFV introductions, failures and successes, through a behavioral dynamic simulation model. I characterize technology diffusion as a process of market formation which requires overcoming a period of fragility. During such a period at least one of the mechanisms conditioning its diffusion works against further spreading. Aggressive, simple strategies to overcome thresholds tend to fail. However, high potential strategies involve policy portfolios that are synchronized across multiple types of decision makers, sustained, and dynamic. Further, the efforts and their duration required to overcome this stage are strongly influenced by institutional and historical contexts. More broadly, the findings provide the groundwork for a framework to analyze diffusion of complex technologies and markets. Such a framework involves capturing the fundamental mechanisms cutting across inter-organizational fields but that also includes the important system-physiological aspects. Within this framework the traditional S-shaped diffusion curve can be seen as a special case with ex-ante usefulness constrained to situation with low market complexity and favorable institutional conditions. We discuss implications for policy and strategy.
منابع مشابه
Alternative fuel vehicles turning the corner?: A product lifecycle model with heterogeneous technologies
The automotive industry may be on the verge of a technological disruption as different alternative fuel vehicles are expected to enter the market. Industry evolution theories are not unified in suggesting the conditions under which different types of entrant technologies can be successful. In particular, the competitive dynamics among a variety of technologies with varying potential for spillov...
متن کاملTechnology Transitions: identifying challenges for hydrogen vehicles
Automobile firms are now developing alternatives to internal combustion engines (ICE), including hydrogen fuel cells and ICE/electric hybrids. Adoption/diffusion dynamics for alternative powered vehicles are more complex than those typical of most new products, due to the enormous size and importance of the automobile industry, the size and impact of the vehicle fleet, the presence of scale and...
متن کاملINDUSTRY STUDIES ASSOCATION WORKING PAPER SERIES The Evolution of a Competence’s Market Specificity And The Emergence of Advantage during a Technological Disruption
متن کامل
Transition challenges for alternative fuel vehicle and transportation systems
Automakers are now developing alternatives to internal combustion engines (ICE), including hydrogen fuel cells and ICE ^ electric hybrids. Adoption dynamics for alternative vehicles are complex, owing to the size and importance of the auto industry and vehicle installed base. Diffusion of alternative vehicles is both enabled and constrained by powerful positive feedbacks arising from scale and ...
متن کاملIdentifying challenges for sustained adoption of alternative fuel vehicles and infrastructure
This paper develops a dynamic, behavioral model with an explicit spatial structure to explore the co-evolutionary dynamics between infrastructure supply and vehicle demand. Vehicles and fueling infrastructure are complementarities and their "chicken-egg" dynamics are fundamental to the emergence of a self-sustaining alternative fuel vehicle market, but they are not well understood. The paper ex...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
دوره شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2008